Chelsea’s chances of winning the FA Cup final against Man City ranked by Opta
Chelsea will be going into the FA Cup final against Manchester City at Wembley as massive underdogs in their quest to end the 2025/26 season with silverware.
Calum McFarlane will lead the Blues out against Pep Guardiola, who could end up competing for his final domestic cup before being replaced by Enzo Maresca at the Etihad.
Liam Rosenior set the club up with wins against lower league opposition in the early rounds, while they snapped their winless run in all competitions beating Leeds United in the semi-finals.
Would you make any changes to our FA Cup final XI?
Chelsea’s chances of winning the FA Cup final ranked
Chelsea will be met by City at Wembley just weeks after they were soundly beaten by the Premier League title hopefuls at Stamford Bridge, which will sit on the minds of the pessimistic supporters.
This has likely played a part in the chance given to the Blues by Opta, who have only given the Blues a 20.6% chance of winning the game in normal time.

They have handed City a 57.6% chance of running out victorious in 90 minutes, with extra time and penalties being given a 21.8% chance.
Chelsea haven’t beaten City in any competition since 2021, when they enjoyed a stellar run of three wins in a couple of months against them when Thomas Tuchel was in charge.
This included glory in the 2021 Champions League final, the last time they beat the upcoming opposition.
It’s good news for Chelsea, but is it enough? 🏆
Calum McFarlane’s latest injury update.
Chelsea team news ahead of FA Cup final
Chelsea have been handed the boost of having both Levi Colwill and Reece James fit and available for selection. They could start together for the first time since the Club World Cup final.
The Blues are lacking a bit in the final third. Estevao Willian and Jamie Gittens will not feature again for them this season.
However, they could be handed the boost of Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho being fit to feature after missing the draw with Liverpool.
They have been tipped to stick to the three-at-the-back system that brought them much better results at Anfield, and is also the preferred formation for potential new manager Xabi Alonso.
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